Published and Accepted Papers
Do Quicker Admission Decisions by Colleges Improve College
Yields?
with Renee Barger and Mark Umbricht
Accepted at The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy
Abstract
This paper examines whether the time institutions take to issue
admissions decisions is associated with students' enrollment
behavior. Using administrative data on all applicants to 13
public universities in North Carolina, linked to National
Student Clearinghouse enrollment records, we study variation in
the number of days between application completion and admission
notification. Across a wide range of specifications, admissions
decision timing exhibits little association with enrollment at
the admitting institution or with where students enroll when
they decline an offer. Even at the upper bounds of confidence
intervals, faster decisions are associated with economically
small changes in enrollment probabilities. Moreover, decision
timing does not predict shifts across public, private, or
out-of-state enrollment destinations, indicating that quicker
admissions decisions are unlikely to alter system-wide
enrollment patterns in public higher education.
Bridging the Gap to Access? Impact of a Pre-Collegiate Summer
Program on College Outcomes
Education Finance and Policy, 2026
Abstract and Links
U.S. colleges face persistent inequities not only in who
enrolls, but in who ultimately graduates. This paper evaluates
the causal impact of BSP, an eight-week pre-collegiate summer
initiative at a large public land-grant university designed to
support first-generation and low-income students in their
transition to college. Leveraging a fuzzy regression
discontinuity design within a local randomization framework, I
find that BSP substantially improves first-year completion and
second-year persistence. While participants receive a $2,500
annual scholarship, comparative analyses of similar financial
aid programs suggest that the bundled nature of BSP, including
structured summer programming, academic mentoring, and peer
support, is central to its effectiveness. These findings
underscore the importance of holistic interventions that
address both financial and nonfinancial barriers to student
success.
What Happens When We Pay Our Teachers More? Evidence from New
Jersey Public Schools
Economics of Education Review, 2026
Abstract and Links
This paper examines the impact of increasing teacher salaries
on student outcomes by exploiting variation from the “50K The
First Day” campaign that established a $50,000 salary floor for
new teachers across New Jersey school districts. Using
school-level data from 2003 to 2019, I employ a staggered
difference-in-differences design and first show that the
campaign shifted the entire salary schedule, raising pay for
incumbents as well as new teachers. Achievement gains emerge
gradually. By five years after adoption, high school Math and
ELA scores increase by approximately 0.15–0.20 and 0.12–0.17
standard deviations, respectively. Despite higher salaries
across the experience distribution, per-pupil spending does
not increase. Districts instead appear to finance the schedule
change through modest staffing reductions. I find little
evidence that teacher migration is the primary mechanism,
suggesting that the improvements are more likely related to
teacher motivation and the quality of new teachers entering
the profession.
A Double-Shot of Organizing: How Starbucks Workers Have Inspired
the Labour Movement
with Zach Schaller and Sal McCollum
Applied Economics Letters, 2026
Abstract and Links
Since the first Starbucks store unionized in Buffalo in 2021,
over 700 locations have filed for elections, and broader
organizing has surged. We examine whether this campaign sparked
wider labor activism. Using an event study, we find that
counties with a Starbucks election saw nearly six additional
non-Starbucks elections on average, accounting for 21 percent
of the post-2021 surge. However, a staggered
difference-in-differences design reveals no wage gains for
restaurant workers, suggesting that union momentum has not yet
shifted bargaining power.
The Pandemic Learning Shock That Wasn't: STEM Major Choice
Resilience During COVID-19
Education Economics, 2025
Abstract and Links
This study investigates whether the onset of the COVID-19
pandemic and the associated shift in campus operations affected
undergraduate students' decisions to remain in or switch into
STEM and biology-related majors. Using longitudinal
administrative data from a large U.S. public university and a
staggered difference-in-differences design, I find no meaningful
effects of the pandemic's onset on semester-level registration
in STEM majors or on switching into STEM. Robustness checks,
including nearest-neighbor matching, yield similar null
estimates. Overall, the evidence suggests that students'
field-of-study choices were largely resilient to the
instructional format change, at least in the short run.
Working Papers
Current manuscripts and ongoing research projects.
Further Evidence of the Effects of Air Pollution on Crime
with Sayorn Chin and Salvador Lurbe
Under Review
Abstract and Link
This paper examines the relationship between ambient particulate
pollution and crime in the United Kingdom using monthly
police-recorded crime data matched to pollution, weather, and
local socioeconomic controls. The empirical analysis focuses
on local authority districts with a pollution monitor within
20 kilometers and estimates fixed-effects models that absorb
police-agency-by-month-year shocks. We find that economically
motivated offenses increase more consistently with pollution
exposure than violent crime. Threshold specifications show that
an additional day with AQI at or above 100 is associated with a
1.5 percent increase in property crime, while the corresponding
violent-crime estimate is small and statistically insignificant.
The offense pattern is more consistent with cognitive-load and
perceived-deterrence channels than with a pure aggression
mechanism, though the estimates should be interpreted as
conditional associations rather than definitive causal effects.
Excess Emissions and Infant Health: Evidence from Texas
with Susan Averett and Sayorn Chin
Working Paper
Abstract
Draft available upon request
States have long granted industrial facilities exemptions from
Clean Air Act penalties for “excess emissions,” the
unanticipated pollution releases from start-ups, shutdowns, and
malfunctions. Linking more than two million confidential Texas
birth records from 2003 to 2010 to the state's facility-level
excess-emissions registry, we use within-tract variation in wind
direction on event days to identify the causal effect of acute
pollution shocks on infant health. Excess emissions sharply
increase local ambient ozone. One hundred additional tons of
NOx within 15 miles of a monitor raises daily mean ozone by
about 56 ppb. Mothers whose tracts lie downwind on a larger
share of pregnancy-window event days deliver infants with lower
birth weight and a higher probability of preterm birth.
Short-duration emission spikes, though often treated as
exceptional, have measurable consequences for early-life
health.
The Effects of the NC Promise Tuition Reduction on Student
Employment, Financing, and Degree Completion
Working Paper
Abstract
Draft available upon request
A tuition reduction provides students with an immediate price
benefit, but its behavioral effects depend on which part of the
student budget adjusts. I study North Carolina's NC Promise
Tuition Plan, which sharply reduced tuition at three regional
public universities beginning in academic year 2018–19. The
primary design follows 175,176 students enrolled immediately
before implementation, assigns treatment according to each
student's pre-policy campus, includes student fixed effects,
and compares students from the same UNC entry cohort in the
same academic year. I find little evidence that lower tuition
meaningfully changes covered employment or students' overall
work intensity while enrolled. Financing adjusts instead. The
probability of borrowing falls by approximately 4.5 percentage
points, while grants and work-study support also decline. The
tuition benefit therefore appears to reduce future debt
obligations and students' reliance on other current resources
rather than substantially releasing time from paid work. Degree
completion does not accelerate. Depending on how policy
exposure is defined, four-year graduation falls by
approximately 1.7 to 4.8 percentage points. A model of financing
substitution and endogenous time to degree helps explain this
joint pattern: lower tuition can reduce future repayment
obligations without materially changing employment, while a
recurring subsidy may also lower the private cost of remaining
enrolled. Overall, NC Promise delivered substantial price and
debt relief, with the primary adjustment margins occurring
through financing and completion timing rather than a retreat
from paid work.
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More the Merrier? Out-of-State Enrollment and In-State Student
Outcomes
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Peers, Professors, and Paychecks: How Classroom Diversity
Shapes Business and Economics Majors and Jobs
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The Siren of the Labor Movement: Spillover Effects from
Starbucks Organizing
with Zach Schaller, Sal McCollum, and Monica Opoku
Policy-Relevant Research
Selected peer-reviewed and applied research produced with
government, nonprofit, and community partners.
Impact of Remittances on Economic Growth in Nepal
with George P. Gonpu
Nepal Public Policy Review, 2021
Description and Link
This project began during my undergraduate econometrics
coursework and introduced me to time-series analysis and
applied policy research. It also shaped how I think about
empirical limitations, the distinction between correlation and
causation, and the value of communicating research to policy
audiences.
Agricultural Conservation Networks in Iowa and the Landscape of
Farm-to-School Coordination
Description and Links
These interdisciplinary projects were completed through the
Institute for Research in the Social Sciences. The first used
social network analysis to study how relationships among
farmers shape agricultural practices and was supported by the
Environmental Defense Fund. The second was conducted with the
National Farm to School Network and used interviews, a national
survey, participant observation, and other mixed methods to
examine farm-to-school coordination and the role of designated
coordinators.
Economic Impact of the Ute Theatre in Garfield County, Colorado
Description and Links
This CSU Extension project examined the economic and
sociocultural importance of the Ute Theatre in Rifle, Colorado.
I developed an input-output model using IMPLAN data and designed
and administered a community survey to assess the historical
venue's broader importance to residents. In designing the
survey flyer and in-person questionnaires, I finally made use
of the many hours I spent in high school learning how to use
Photoshop. Ex post, I was humbled to discover that many free
websites online could probably have designed the flyers better.